October 2014. Risk factor based modelling for Public Health England

Risk factors such as overweight and obesity, smoking and excessive salt consumption are major causes of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Therefore monitoring trends in these risk factors, how they are likely to change in the future and their subsequent impact upon NCDs is crucial if policies are to be implemented and maintained appropriately. This work projected future trends in obesity, smoking and salt consumption to 2034 and tested the impact of different scenarios on future burden of related NCDs using a dynamic, dual module microsimulation model.